From Stats Perform: Cubs Have Gone From First Place To Afterthought

From the offices of Stats Perform

In the modern era, only one MLB team – the 1945 Philadelphia A’s – has finished a season getting three-quarters of its overall wins at home. This year’s Rockies are on track to join them.

Highest Pct of Team’s Wins Coming at Home, Single Season Since 1900 2021

Colorado Rockies 75.4% (43/57)

1945 Philadelphia Athletics 75.0 (39/52)

2020 Texas Rangers 72.7 (16/22) 1981 Chicago Cubs 71.1 (27/38)

2010 Pittsburgh Pirates 70.2 (40/57)

Colorado has the majors’ third-best home record (43-22, .662) and worst road mark (14-45, .237). The contrast between home and road has been particularly sharp this month, especially at the plate.

Rockies in Home vs. Road Games, Since August 1 (w/MLB Ranks)

Home Road Record

10-2 (.833) (2nd) 1-6 (.143) (28th)

Runs/Gm 7.75 (t-1st) 1.71 (last; 12/7)

BA .330 (1st) .200 (last)

OBP .391 (2nd) .280 (27th)

SLG .626 (1st) .267 (last)

OPS 1.017 (1st) .547 (last)

HR/Gm 2.25 (1st) 0.43 (29th; 3/7)

The Cubs were in first place in the NL Central less than two months ago, before their season came off the rails. The pitching staff in particular has struggled immediately after it produced a combined no-hitter on June 24 at Dodger Stadium.

Cubs, 2021 Season – Before & Since June 25, 2021 Season

Thru 6/24 6/25 & Since

W-L (Pct) 42-33 (.560) 12-39 (.235)

Division Place t-1st 4th (22.5 GB)

Runs/Gm 4.3 3.8

Opp Runs/Gm 4.0 6.3

Starters ERA 4.55 5.63

Bullpen ERA 2.60 6.42

BA Allowed .227 .284 Worst in MLB

Chicago has dropped a franchise-record 13 consecutive home games.

Cubs – Longest HOME Losing Streaks, All-Time (single-season streaks only)

July/August 2021 13 (active)

April/May 1994 12

July/August 1902 11

June/July 1951 10

July/August 1974 10

The Cubs have allowed four or more runs in each of their last 14 home contests, one shy of the franchise single-season high of 15 straight games in 1894.

Frank Schwindel has been a bright spot for the Cubs since being recalled from the minors in late July. He’s just the fourth player since 1950 to accumulate at least 25 hits and 15 RBI through his first 20 games with the franchise.

25+ Hits & 15+ RBI in First 20 Games of Cubs Career, Since 1950 H RBI

Keith Moreland (1982) 28 15

Gary Gaetti (1998) 25 15 Marlon Byrd (2010) 27 15

Frank Schwindel (2021) 25 15

Kyle Hendricks is on pace to become the sixth Cub in the modern era to lead the majors in wins.

Cubs Pitchers Leading MLB in Wins, Since 1900 1927

1927 Charlie Root 26

1938 Bill Lee 22

1964 Larry Jackson 24

2015 Jake Arrieta 22 2020

2020 Yu Darvish 8 (tied for first)

2021 Kyle Hendricks 14  leads thru 8/22

Hendricks’ 14 wins represent 25.9 percent of the Cubs’ season total, easily the highest percentage by any MLB pitcher this year (no other pitcher is at 20 percent).

C.J. Cron is enjoying an excellent month at the plate.

Cron, Since August 1 – w/MLB Ranks (minimum 50 PA for rate ranks)

BA .397 3rd (25/63)

HR 7 t-1st (w/8 others)

RBI 28 1st

OBP .480 3rd

SLG .825 1st

OPS 1.305 1st

Antonio Senzatela’s strikeout, walk and home run rates are all among the lowest in the National League, leading to the majors’ lowest “three true outcome” percentage.

Senzatela – Three True Outcome Rates, 2021 (minimum 100 IP for ranks)

K per 9 IP 6.11  lowest in NL

BB per 9 IP 1.93  5th lowest in NL

HR per 9 IP 0.72  5th lowest in NL

Senzatela is 0-6 with a 5.80 ERA in eight road starts this year. The Rockies have lost his last 13 road starts going back to last season, tying the longest streak of team losses in a pitcher’s road starts in club history (John Thomson, 1998-2001).