MLB Trade Rumors: Shohei Ohtani Agrees to $700-million Contract with Dodgers
DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani announced on his Instagram that he has “decided to choose the Dodgers as my next team.” Ohtani’s agent, Nez Balelo, subsequently revealed that Ohtani’s Dodgers contract is a 10-year deal worth $700 million.
It is the largest guarantee received by a professional athlete, breaking the record set by Lionel Messi on his 2017–21 contract with FC Barcelona (which guaranteed him 555 million euros, or about $674 million). Ohtani's contract exceeds the previous MLB record contract, Mookie Betts' $365 million extension, by a whopping $335 million.
MLBTR considered Mike Trout's extension to be worth $360 million, since that's the amount that was added to the $66.5 million he was already owed at the time.
However, much like the Betts deal, the actual present-day value of Ohtani’s contract is considerably less, as Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that “most” of Ohtani’s salary will be deferred, which Ohtani himself suggested to allow the Dodgers to continue to spend on talent. Per Passan, the competitve-balance-tax hit on Ohtani’s contract is expected to fall in the range of $40 million to $50 million. If that reflects the contract’s present-day value, than it’s not that far above Betts' guarantee, after all.
The Dodgers were long believed to be the favorite to land Ohtani. MLBTR’s Free Agnet Predictions saw Tim, Anthony, and Darragh all pick the Dodgers as Ohtani’s likely landing spot, and the Dodgers declined to make a qualifying offer to free-agent designated hitter J.D. Martinez, reportedly out of fear that Martinez would accept and complicate their expected signing of fellow-DH Ohtani. Still, there were erroneous reports on Friday that Ohtani had chosen the Blue Jays, and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reported on Sunday that the Jays were “right there” in the bidding for the two-way superstar. The Dodgers reportedly increased their offer by close to $100 million on the final day of negotiations, per J.P. Hoornstra of Dodgers Nation.
Over the weekend, several reports addressed the fact that Othanio’s value as a brand could pay for a huge chunk of his contract. Sam Blum and Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic cited a source who said the deal will “pay for itself within six or seven years . . . just on advertising alone.” Multiple other reports noted that Ohtani earned roughly $40 million in endorsements last offseason, about eight times the endorsement income of MLB runner-up Trout.
Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times reports that the Angels earned between $10 million and $20 million annually in “Ohtani-related advertising, promotions, [and] marketing revenue,” while USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that figure as $25 million a year, and both said that revenue could double in combination with the stronger Dodgers brand, both locally and internationally. On the high end, that’s $50 million a year, which indeed may be close to the present-day value of Ohtani’s salary.
The contract has not officially been announced, but that’s believed to be just a matter of the Dodgers clearing space on their roster, something they appear poised to do via a minor trade with the Yankees (further details on that below). The contract will span Ohtani’s age-29 to -38 seasons.
The Dodgers now project to have Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Shohei Ohtani batting one-through-three in their order in 2024 and to add Ohtani to their starting rotation in 2025. Ohtani will not pitch this season following an ulnar-collateral-ligament repair in his pitching elbow).
Meanwhile, it will be fascinating to see what impact Ohtani’s contract, which came in far above all expectations, will have on the Yankees’ efforts to extend Juan Soto (which seemed like a long shot to begin with) and Soto’s subsequent free agency next offseason.
Ohtani is a unique case as an international superstar who is the most famous player in the two richest baseball-centric countries (the U.S. and Japan) and as a former (and hopefully future) two-way player who effectively has the impact of two star players, an elite power hitter and a front-end starting pitcher. Still, Soto has been a better hitter in his career to this point and will be three years younger when he hits free agency next year than Ohtani is now.
Red Sox Acquire Tyler O’Neill
Prior to the Ohtani signing, the Cardinals finally traded an outfielder, sending Tyler O’Neill to the Red Sox for right-handed pitchers Nick Robertson and Victor Santos. O’Neill was a Gold Glove winner in left field in 2020 and ’21 and finished eighth in the National League MVP voting in 2021. However, his 148 OPS+ in 2021 now looks like a fluke, as he has hit just .229/.302/.407 in 1,099 plate appearances across his other five major-league seasons.
O’Neill has made considerable progress in his plate approach over the course of his career, bringing his walk rate above the league average and lowering his strikeout rate in the process, but the heavily muscled outfielder, who will turn 29 in June, has struggled to stay healthy. Even in his 2021 campaign, he hit the injured list twice, with a groin strain and a fractured finger. This year, he missed two and a half months with a lower back strain. O’Neill gives the Red Sox a right-handed outfield bat to compliment lefties Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran, and Wilyer Abreu, but it remains to be seen how much the Sox will be able to get out of that bat, in terms of both production and playing time, before O’Neill hits free agency after the coming season.
As for the pitchers going to the Cardinals, Nick Robertson is a 6-foot-6 righty reliever whom the Sox acquired from the Dodgers in this year’s deadline deal for Kiké Hernández. The 25-year-old debuted this year and posted a 6.04 ERA in 18 games. He’s just a depth piece. Santos is a 23-year-old non-roster non-prospect starting pitcher who has yet to reach the majors and did not pitch in 2023 due to injury, though he is back in action in LIDOM, the Dominican winter league.
Atlanta Acquires Max Stassi and David Fletcher, Flips Stassi to White Sox
In a curious sequence, Atlanta acquired infielder David Fletcher and catcher Max Stassi from the Angels for none-roster 1B Evan White and non-roster LHP Tyler Thomas, then flipped Stassi and cash to the White Sox for a player to be named later. From the Angels’ perspective, the deal with Atlanta was a salary dump that freed up a couple of 40-man roster spots. Fletcher is owed $14 million for the next two seasons, including the buyout on this 2026 club option. Stassi is owed $7.5 million, including the $500,000 buyout on his 2025 club option. White, acquired by Atlanta from the Mariners in the Jared Kelenic deal earlier this month, offsets that $21.5 million significantly, however, as he’s owed $17 million, including the $2 million buyout on his 2026 club option. Still, that’s $4.5 million in savings for the Halos, who will have Matt Thaiss back up Logan O’Hoppe at catcher and have lost interest in trying to find room in their infield for Fletcher, who will turn 30 in May and has hit .259/.296/.327 (71 OPS+) over three seasons since signing a five-year extension. White, 28 in April, seems like a lost cause at this point. Thomas, a soon-to-be-28-year-old reliever who has appeared in just a dozen games above Double-A, is just an organizational arm.
For the White Sox, they get Stassi at a steep discount, as Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times reports that Atlanta is expected to pay the majority of Stassi’s $7-million salary for 2024. Stassi missed all of the 2023 season due to a hip strain and the premature birth of his child, but his child is doing well, and Stassi is healthy and looking forward to getting back on the field for his age-33 season. He’ll vie with rookies Korey Lee and Carlos Pérez for primary catching duties on the South Side.
The question then becomes: What does Atlanta get out of all of this? Right now, it’s David Fletcher as their utility infielder for $4.5 million, maybe a bit less if the White Sox are paying some of Stassi’s contract. Perhaps Atlanta’s willingness to pay so much of Stassi’s contract means that the player to be named later in that deal will be an interesting one, but there seems to be a low ceiling on just how interesting he could be.
Steven Brault Retires
Former Pirates left-hander Steven Brault announced his retirement on Instagram last month. An 11th-round pick out of Denver’s Regis University by the Orioles in 2013, Brault spent six of his seven major-league seasons with the Pirates. Brault debuted with Pittsburgh in 2016 and made 52 starts and 55 relief appearances for the Pirates in his six seasons with the team. His best campaign came in the abbreviated 2020 season, when he posted a 134 ERA+ in 10 starts and one relief outing. Brault signed with the Cubs for the 2022 season but made just nine relief appearances for Chicago due to a shoulder injury. He attempted to restart his career this year as an outfielder with the Atlantic League’s Spire City Ghost Hounds and hit .283/.327/.465 in 200 plate appearances but drew no major-league interest. Brault, who had a popular podcast with teammate Trevor Williams while both were with the Pirates, hopes to get into broadcasting, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. We at MLBTR wish Brault the best of luck in the next phase of his life.
Also…
Guardians are bringing back C Austin Hedges via a one-year, $4 million contract, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Cleveland originally acquired Hedges from the Padres as part of the return for RHP Mike Clevinger at the 2020 trade deadline. Hedges hit .169/.228/.274 (41 OPS+) in 662 plate appearances for the Guardians over two-plus seasons before leaving as a free agent. Hedges is now 31 and, while lauded for his play behind the plate, is the worst active hitter with at least 1,000 career plate appearances, per his career 55 OPS+. Hedges will back up sophomore Bo Naylor in Cleveland.
Marlins purchased C Christian Bethancourt from the Guardians, who had claimed Bethancourt off waivers from the Rays in November, then displaced him by signing Austin Hedges. The 32-year-old Bethancourt, who revived his major-league career with the A’s in 2022, has hit .239/.269/.395 (87 OPS+) over the last two seasons, which is better than what the Marlins have received over that span from Nick Fortes, who is likely to share time with Bethancourt behind the plate in 2024 barring another catching addition. Bethancourt is under team control through 2025.
Royals have come to terms with veteran LHP Will Smith on a pne-year, $5 million contract, per Jeff Passan of ESPN. The deal includes up to $1 million in incentives, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The 34-year-old Smith joins his fourth team in a three-year span following stints with Atlanta, Houston, and the Rangers, but is likely to see his streak of three straight World Series wins with three different teams snapped in Kansas City. Smith has saved 112 games over the last six years and seems likely to close for Kansas City until they send him to yet another team at the 2024 trade deadline.
Tigers are bringing back lefty reliever Andr4w Chafin on a one-year, $4.75 million contract with a $6.5 million club option for 2025, a $500,000 buyout, and incentives that could push his 2024 salary to $6.5 million and the option value to $7.75 million, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Chafin previously signed a two-year, $13-million deal with Detroit prior to the 2022 season but opted out of the second year of that deal. He subsequently signed with the Diamondbacks, who traded him to the Brewers at this year’s deadline, and Milwaukee declined his $7.25-million option for 2024. An Ohio native, Chafin will turn 34 in June and has a career 126 ERA+ but had a down year in 2023, primarily due to a spike in his walk rate. He joins sophomore Tyler Holton and, possibly, repurposed starter Joey Wentz as left-handed options in the Detroit bullpen.
Coaching News
Brewers are moving Charlie Greene from assistant director of player development to major-league bullpen coach and Jim Henderson from bullpen coach to assistant pitching coach, per Will Sammon of The Athletic.
Updates
Diamondbacks officially announced LHP Eduardo Rodriguez’s four-year contract. Per Robert Murray of FanSided, Rodriguez will make $14 million in 2024 followed by salaries of $20 million, $21 million, and $19 million. Also per Murray, the 2028 option is a mutual option with a $6-million buyout, but it will vest if Rodriguez throws 150 innings in 2027 or 300 in 2026 and ’27 combined and will vest at $18 million with 175 IP in ’27 or 250 combined in ’26 and ’27 (though I suspect Murray accidentally switched those 300 and 250 figures). The contract also includes bonuses and a limited no-trade clause.
Rays received non-roster OF Jake Mangum as the player to be named later from the Marlins in the deal that sent UT Vidal Bruján and RHP Calvin Faucher to Miami for IF Erick Lara, RHP Andrew Lindsey, and now Mangum.
Rumors
Dodgers are still in on NPB RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the wake of the Ohtani signing, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, who lists them as the third-most-likely team to sign Yamamoto, after the Mets and Yankees, in that order. Dodgers will trade two players from the fringe of their 40-man roster—an “end of roster” pitcher and a prospect on the 40-man—to the Yankees for a non-roster prospect in order to clear roster space for free-agent signings Shohei Ohtani and Joe Kelly, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman reports that the deal is pending medical review.
Guardians 1B Josh Naylor has drawn trade interest from the Cubs, Mariners, and Pirates, per Paul Hoynes of The Plain Dealer.
Mets and 1B Pete Alonsohave not had extension talks this offseason and it’s unclear if they intend to, per Tim Healey of Newsday. Alonso will be in his walk year in 2024.
Orioles’ extension of their lease on Camden Yards, which expires on December 31, hit a major snag on Friday when Maryland state senator Bill Ferguson released a statement opposing the framework between the team and the governor’s office that would grant the team 99-year development rights on the area around Oriole Park. In response to Ferguson’s statement, governor Wes Moore has put a hold on the tentative 30-year lease extension for Camden Yards, per Jeff Barker, Hayes Gardner, and Emily Opilo of The Baltimore Sun. Last week’s report that the Orioles were listening to offers for the sale of the team seems to have prompted Ferguson’s statement, though Ferguson has opposed the development aspect of the deal since at least August, per Barker, Gardner, and Opilo. Andy Kostka and Pamela Wood of The Baltimore Banner report that Orioles chairman and CEO John Angelos told governor Moore Thursday night that the Angelos family has no plan to sell a majority stake in the team. The team now has less than three weeks to work out an extension that can pass the state legislature.
Padres could be priced out of the market for KBO CF Jung Hoo Lee. Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that Lee could land a guarantee close to $90 million, not counting the posting fee.
Phillies 1B Bryce Harper is interested in extending his contract, his agent, Scott Boras, told reporters. Harper is signed through 2031, his age-38 season.
Red Sox have “considered” free-agent 2B/OF Whit Merrifield and have contacted his representatives, per Chad Jennings and Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic.
Rockies are preparing to open a performance lab at their Spring Training facilities as they continue to try to catch up to the rest of the league in analytics, per Thomas Harding of MLB.com.
Royals are being “aggressive” in the starting pitching market, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. They made an offer to free-agent Sonny Gray before he signed with the Cardinals, have shown strong interest in free-agent RHP Seth Lugo, have free-agent RHP Marcus Stroman “on their radar,” per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, and have shown interest in free-agent RHP Lucas Giolito and in trading for one of the starters on the Mariners or Marlins.
Twins IF Jorge Polanco and of Max Kepler “are the two Twins players drawing the most interest on the trade market,” per the Star Tribune’s Bobby Nightengale, while Jon Morosi of the MLB Network adds that Polanco’s market “increased” last week.
Yankees RHP and 2023 American League Cy Young award winner Gerritt Cole can opt out of the last four years and $144 million of his contract after the 2024 season. If he does, the Yankees can void that opt-out by adding an extra year at $36 million to the deal. Cole’s agent, Scott Boras, told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale that he “would anticipate” that both “are going to happen.”
Free-agent DH/OF JD Martinez is drawing interest from the Angels, Diamondbacks, Mariners, and Mets, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post.
Free-agent OF/DH Jorge Soler is drawing interest from the Diamondbacks and Mariners, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.
NPB pitching star Roki Sasaki has asked his team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, to post him to major-league teams this winter, per Sponichi Annex. NBP teams have until December 15, that’s this Friday, to post players for the 2024 season, and it seems very unlikely that the Marines will post their young star, who just turned 22 last month.
Other Roster Moves
White Sox outrighted RHP Edgar Navarro, likely to make room for RHP Erick Fedde on the 40-man roster, though Fedde’s contract is not yet official.
Minor-League Signings
Atlanta signed LHP Zach Logue to a minor-league contract, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post.
Giants signed RHP Daulton Jefferies to a minor-league contract, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle and re-signed 1B/OF Yoshi Tustsugo to what is presumably a minor-league deal, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post.
Mariners signed RHP Brett de Geus to a minor-league contract.
Mets signed OF Taylor Kohlwey to a minor-league contract.
Rays to sign RHP Edwin Uceta to a minor-league contract and invite him to major-league Spring Training, per Francys Romero.
Tigers signed C Anthony Bemboom and re-sigened RHP Brenan Hanifee to minor-league contracts per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, respectively.
Yankees re-signed OF Billy McKinney and LHP Anthony Misiewicz to minor-league contracts, per Jack Curry of the YES Network.
NBP’s Chiba Lotte Marines signed RHP Junior Fernandez.
NPB’s Hiroshima Toyo Carp signed RHP Thomas Hatch and LHP Taylor Hearn, per Yahoo Japan.
NPB’s Tokyo Yakult Swallows signed RHP Miguel Yajure to a one-year deal, per Yahoo Japan.
KBO’s Hanwha Eagles re-signed RHP Félix Peña.
From Trade Rumors Front Office
Anthony Franco’s weekly exclusive live chat with Front Office subscribers had the misfortune of taking place before the news broke about Shohei Ohtani’s record-shattering contract with the Dodgers, but it did address one of the more surprising signings prior to that, the Reds’ inking of an umpteenth starting infielder in Jeimer Candelario:
Mugatu: As a Reds fan, am I taking crazy pills if I’m pumped about the JC signing, even if they don’t make a trade? The offense went through some rough patches last year and you have to expect some regression from guys like Steer and McClain. Depth could be their weapon, and there is always the trade deadline.
Grinch: How will Cincy Clear the infield logjam they added to by signing Candelario?
Anthony Franco: They could kick Steer more or less full-time to left-field and keep everyone. That’s the plan Nick Krall has put for forth publicly, at least. It’s fair for state it is in his historyed to downplay his desire to clear the logjam, but they also held everyone at the deadline when you could have made a similar arguement. I’d be ok with the Candelario deal regardless of what they go. To Mugatu’s point, having a lot of multi-position infield depth isn’t the worst thing in the world.”