ALCS: Keuchel Gives Astros Game 1 Edge

Dallas Keuchel

Here is what can’t be ignored about Dallas Keuchel, the Astros starter against the Yankees in Game 1 of the NLCS at Minute Maid Park Friday night. Kuechel pitches well at home. Relishes the post-season and isn’t bad against the Yankees, either. His 2.26 ERA at Minute Maid Park in 2017 was the third lowest home ERA among Major League pitchers who worked at least 70 innings. Jhoulys Chacin of the Cubs had a best-in-baseball 1.79 home ERA in 20127 and Cory Kluber of the Cubs was second at 1.81. Keuchel’s ERA at Minute Maid Park was 2.26 in the regular season.

Keuchel in the Post-Season and at Minute Maid Park

Year Rnd W L G GS INN H R ER HR BB SO ERA
2015 WC  1  0  1  1  6.0  3  0  0  0  1  7  0.00
2015 DIV  1  0  2  1  8.0  7  4  4  2  4  7  4.50
2017 DIV  1  0  1  1  5.2  3  1  1  0  3  7  1.59
Totals  3  0  4  3  19.2  13  5  5  2  8  21  2.29
  W L GS CG INN H R ER HR BB SO ERA
2017 Home 6 3 11 0 71.2 47 19 18 4 21 59 2.26
W L GS CG INN H R ER HR BB SO ERA
Career Home 36 21 75 6 517 ## # ## 35 143 427 2.94

And head to head, Keuchel’s numbers would say the Astros have a definite edge in a match-up between Keuchel and Yankee’s expected Game 1 starter Masahiro Tanaka.

  A Look at Tanaka and Keuchel 

Team Pitcher Split W L ERA IP H ER BB SO
NYY Masahiro Tanaka (R) Season 13 12 4.74 178.1 180 94 41 194
Last Game 1 0 0.00 7.0 3 0 1 7
Last 5 Games 3 2 4.70 30.2 28 16 6 43
Career vs Opponent 0 2 10.38 17.1 25 20 6 16
Hou Dallas Keuchel (L) Season 14 5 2.90 145.2 116 47 47 125
Last Game 1 0 1.59 5.2 3 1 3 7
Last 5 Games 3 2 2.76 29.1 23 9 13 30
Career vs Opponent 4 2 1.41 44.2 30 7 6 45

As far as life at home or on the road, it doesn’t make much difference to either team. The Astros have the best road record in the AL at 54-29, including the games in the post-season, but the Yankees have the best home-field record in the AL at 53-30. The Astros aren’t bad at home either, a 50-33 record that ranks third in the AL, behind only the Yankees and the Indians. And the Yankees have the fifth best road record in the AL (41-43).

 

AL Road W L Pct. AL Home W L Pct.
Astros 54 29 .651   Yankees 54 30 .643
Indians 53 30 .639 Indians 51 33 .607
Red Sox 45 38 .542 Astros 50 33 .602
Twins 44 38 .537 Red Sox 49 34 .590
Yankees 41 43 .488 Orioles 46 35 .568
 Mariners 38 43 .469 Athletics 46 35 .568
Rays 38 43 .469 Royals 43 38 .531
Royals 37 44 .457 Angels 43 38 .531
Angels 37 44 .457 Rays 42 39 .519
Rangers 37 44 .457 Blue Jays 42 39 .519
Blue Jays 34 47 .420 Twins 41 40 .506
Tigers 30 51 .370 Rangers 41 40 .506
Orioles 29 52 .358 Mariners 40 41 .494
Athletics 29 52 .358 White Sox 39 42 .481
White Sox 28 53 .346 Tigers 34 47 .420

The Astros have two of the hottest hitters in the post-season with Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa. Altuve has the second highest bating average (.533) of the post-season, ranks tied for seventh with four RBI, and has a post-season-leading three home runs. Correa ranks second in RBI with six and tied for second in home runs with two.

Player Team AVG   Player Team RBI   Player Team HR
Hanley Ramirez Bos .571 Michael A. Taylor Was 8 Jose Altuve Hou 3
Jose Altuve Hou .533 Carlos Correa Hou 6 Greg Bird NYY 2
Yuli Gurriel Hou .529 Anthony Rizzo ChC 5 Alex Bregman Hou 2
Justin Turner LAD .462 Jackie Bradley Jr. Bos 5 Jay Bruce Cle 2
Yasiel Puig LAD .455 Rafael Devers Bos 5 Carlos Correa Hou 2
Logan Forsythe LAD .444 Justin Turner LAD 5 Rafael Devers Bos 2
George Springer Hou .412 Jose Altuve Hou 4 Didi Gregorius NYY 2
Evan Gattis Hou .400 Jay Bruce Cle 4 Gary Sanchez NYY 2
Mitch Moreland Bos .385 Aaron Hicks NYY 4 Michael A. Taylor Was 2
Josh Reddick Hou .375 Francisco Lindor Cle 4
Yasiel Puig LAD 4
Carlos Santana Cle 4
Michael A. Taylor Was 4
Ryan Zimmerman Was 4

The Astros did have the upper hand during the season. They won five of seven from the Yankees — three out of four at Yankee Stadium and two out of three at Minute Maid Park. Correa had the big games in the first and the last of the seven games between the two teams.

Date Result Win Loss Save Big Offensive Effort
May 11 Astros 3, at Yankees 2 Keuchel Pineda Giles Correa 2-3, HR, 2 RBI
May 12 Astros 5, at Yankees McCullers Montgomery McCan 2-4, HR, 3 RBI
May 13 Rainout
May 14 Game 1 at Yankees 11, Astros 6 Warren Harris Castro 2-5, HR, 3 RBI
Game 2 Astros 10, at Yankees 7 Morton Tanaka Bregman Grand Slam
June 30 Yankees 13, at Astros 4 Pineda Feliz Mitchell Gardner 3-6, Slam, Dbl 6 RBI
July 1 at Astros 7, Yankees 6 Diaz Betances Giles Gurriel 3-4, 4 RBI, HR, Dbl
July 2 at Astros 8, Yankees 1 Devenski Severino Correa 4-5, 2 Dbl, 3 RBI
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